For diseases where an infection risk model exists, you'll see a second graph directly below the spore concentration graph. It estimates how likely an infection event is by combining three things that all need to line up for a fungus to successfully infect a plant: spores need to be present, the temperature needs to be in the right range, and there needs to be enough moisture for long enough.
Unlike weather-only disease models, BioScout's model uses your farm's actual measured spore data as one of the three inputs - not just a forecast. A high-risk weather window with no spores detected will show a lower risk than the same weather window with spores confirmed present.
What Goes Into the Score
Spores - assessed over the past 4 days, since spores landed on the crop can still be viable for a little while after they're detected
Temperature - a rolling 4-hour average, used to work out how much moisture the fungus needs at that temperature (fungi need less moisture time when it's warmer, and more when it's cooler)
Moisture - relative humidity above a threshold (typically 90%+), assessed over a 10-hour window
These combine into one of four risk categories: Low, Low-Moderate, Moderate-High, and Severe. Risk is recalculated every hour as new sensor data comes in.
Historical vs. Forecast Risk
A vertical line on the graph marks today. Everything to the left is calculated from real sensor readings and won't change. Everything to the right (up to 7 days ahead) is a projection based on weather forecast data, so it carries more uncertainty the further out it goes - and it updates as the forecast does.
Good To Know
As a general rule of thumb:
A Low score means neither spores nor weather are favourable, so it's unlikely you'd need to act
A Severe score is worth taking seriously, particularly if your crop is at a growth stage where it's vulnerable
The two middle categories usually mean infection is either unlikely or would be mild - how seriously you treat them will depend on your own risk tolerance and what you're seeing in the field. Not every disease has an infection risk model yet - we're expanding coverage over time.
Need help?
If you have questions about a risk reading for your site, contact the BioScout support team from the dashboard — go to Contact Support and fill in the form and we'll get back to you.